Kamala Harris set to name her running mate

Presumptive Democratic nominee Kamala Harris is scheduled to meet on Sunday with the leading candidates for her running mate. The top contenders include Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota, and Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona. Harris is expected to name her vice presidential pick by Tuesday. She and her running mate will be campaigning together in battleground states this week.

Possible vice presidential running mates

Harris' process for selecting a running mate has been notably brief because, until two weeks ago, she was herself running for reelection as vice president alongside President Joe Biden. However, after a challenging debate performance against Trump in late June and declining poll numbers, Biden ended his campaign and swiftly endorsed Harris.

Harris is holding meetings with Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, and Arizona Senator Mark Kelly at the Naval Observatory in Washington, her official residence as vice president. On Friday, she also met with Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, and is considering two additional governors: J.B. Pritzker of Illinois and Andy Beshear of Kentucky.

Aides have characterized these in-person meetings as a “chemistry test,” providing Harris with an opportunity to assess her personal rapport with potential running mates whom she is already somewhat familiar with.

The vice president is set to interview Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, and Arizona Senator Mark Kelly during a series of meetings on Sunday.

According to the New York Times, Washington Post, and CNN, other potential candidates may still be considered, including Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker, and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.

Kamala Harris donations

Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign said Friday that it raised $310 million in July, more than double the $138.7 million that former President Trump and his affiliated committees said they raised during the same month. Harris' newly-launched campaign generated a massive influx of donations. Tech billionaires and Silicon Valley insiders have been rallying behind Harris in her presidential bid, reflecting her deep connections with the influential California tech industry. However, her recent speech in London, among many others, reveals her position on Big Tech: she is unlikely to offer them a free pass.
Her campaigns were heavily funded by luminaries in the tech industry. Apple design guru Jony Ive donated, as did Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff and former Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg. Laurene Powell Jobs, the well-known philanthropist and widow of Apple's Steve Jobs, hosted a fundraiser for Harris at her Palo Alto home, according to the New York Times.

US presidential election affects market performance

As if a typical election year weren't already unpredictable enough for investors, this year has brought two particularly unusual developments. On July 13, Trump survived an assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania. Less than two weeks later, Biden announced he would not seek re-election, paving the way for Harris to become the presumptive Democratic nominee.

With the 2024 US presidential election facing significant changes and uncertainty in recent weeks, it's natural for investors to question how this might affect the markets.

Political shifts can indeed influence policy and society. Given the strong emotions on both sides of the political spectrum, it’s understandable that investors might believe these developments—and the eventual outcome of the election—could significantly impact market sentiment and financial prices.

Aside from the 12 months before and the month immediately after the election, the S&P 500 typically experienced lower volatility on average during election years compared to similar periods in non-election years. This pattern of reduced volatility might be unexpected, given the higher incidence of recessions in the years following elections. The historical data indicate that the market has shown similar seasonal trends during both presidential election years and other years. And in presidential election years, the average level of market volatility was at its highest in the one month and three months prior to voting day.

When considering shares, indices, forex (foreign exchange) and commodities for trading and price predictions, remember that trading CFDs involves a significant degree of risk and could result in capital loss.

Past performance is not indicative of any future results. This information is provided for informative purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice.