Sunday Feb 27 2022 06:28
16 min
All attention is on the situation in Ukraine after the invasion by Russia. Otherwise, there is the usual round of central bank speakers, decisions from the Bank of Canada and Reserve Bank of Australia and earnings from some of the more speculative end of the tech sector to look forward to. Finally, Friday sees the monthly US jobs report.
Ukraine
Markets have been tested enormously by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. On Thursday, the ruble plunged to a record low against the USD and the Moscow stock market had its worst single day drop on record. Meanwhile the impact was felt globally as oil prices surged above $100 to levels last seen in 2014. The situation is dynamic, and markets will continue to be on the hook for news flow.
OPEC meeting
OPEC and allies, including Russia, are due to meet this week. Against the backdrop of surging oil prices and potential sanctions on Russian oil, the meeting comes at a difficult moment in terms of the geopolitics. Can the alliance between Russia and OPEC members survive the current crisis?
Central banks
The Bank of Canada is due to begin raising rates when it convenes on March 2nd, beginning a brisk hiking cycle The Reserve Bank of Australia meets but is not expected to raise interest rates yet. A hike is not expected until June at the soonest. Meanwhile we are set to hear from Fed chair Jay Powell as he testifies in front of the House Financial Services Committee.
Jobs report
The monthly nonfarm payrolls report is due Friday. Last time the January figures were much more impressive than expected, gaining +467k vs +110k expected. Wages were up big, jobs growth much better than expected. Also, there were some massive upwards revisions to prior months. This was a reading that seemed to offer the Fed carte blanche to hike rates by 50bps in March – but this was before Russia invaded Ukraine.
Economic data
Ahead of the NFP numbers we get the ADP jobs report on Wednesday. Seldom a good indicator for the official jobs report, it’s nevertheless a market-moving event. We are also watching for the ISM manufacturing and services PMI reports for the US.
Earnings season continues
Look for updates from tech names including Zoom, Salesforce, Snowflake and Broadcom.
Major economic data (times in GMT)
| Sun Feb 27 | 11:50pm | JPY | Prelim Industrial Production m/m |
| JPY | Retail Sales y/y | ||
| Mon Feb 28 | 12:00am | AUD | MI Inflation Gauge m/m |
| NZD | Final ANZ Business Confidence | ||
| 12:30am | AUD | Company Operating Profits q/q | |
| AUD | Private Sector Credit m/m | ||
| AUD | Retail Sales m/m | ||
| 5:00am | JPY | Housing Starts y/y | |
| 7:00am | GBP | Nationwide HPI m/m | |
| 7:30am | CHF | Retail Sales y/y | |
| 8:00am | CHF | KOF Economic Barometer | |
| CHF | GDP q/q | ||
| EUR | Spanish Flash CPI y/y | ||
| 1:30pm | CAD | Current Account | |
| CAD | IPPI m/m | ||
| CAD | RMPI m/m | ||
| USD | Goods Trade Balance | ||
| USD | Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m | ||
| 2:45pm | USD | Chicago PMI | |
| 9:30pm | AUD | AIG Manufacturing Index | |
| Tue Mar 1 | 12:30am | AUD | Current Account |
| JPY | Final Manufacturing PMI | ||
| 1:00am | CNY | Manufacturing PMI | |
| CNY | Non-Manufacturing PMI | ||
| 1:45am | CNY | Caixin Manufacturing PMI | |
| 3:30am | AUD | Cash Rate | |
| AUD | RBA Rate Statement | ||
| 3:35am | JPY | 10-y Bond Auction | |
| 5:30am | AUD | Commodity Prices y/y | |
| 7:00am | EUR | German Retail Sales m/m | |
| All Day | EUR | German Prelim CPI m/m | |
| 8:15am | EUR | Spanish Manufacturing PMI | |
| 8:30am | CHF | Manufacturing PMI | |
| 8:45am | EUR | Italian Manufacturing PMI | |
| 8:50am | EUR | French Final Manufacturing PMI | |
| 8:55am | EUR | German Final Manufacturing PMI | |
| 9:00am | EUR | Final Manufacturing PMI | |
| 9:30am | GBP | Final Manufacturing PMI | |
| GBP | M4 Money Supply m/m | ||
| GBP | Mortgage Approvals | ||
| GBP | Net Lending to Individuals m/m | ||
| 10:00am | EUR | Italian Prelim CPI m/m | |
| 1:30pm | CAD | GDP m/m | |
| 2:30pm | CAD | Manufacturing PMI | |
| 2:45pm | USD | Final Manufacturing PMI | |
| 3:00pm | USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI | |
| USD | Construction Spending m/m | ||
| USD | ISM Manufacturing Prices | ||
| All Day | USD | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | |
| Tentative | NZD | GDT Price Index | |
| 6:30pm | GBP | MPC Member Saunders Speaks | |
| 7:00pm | GBP | MPC Member Mann Speaks | |
| 9:45pm | NZD | Building Consents m/m | |
| NZD | Overseas Trade Index q/q | ||
| 11:50pm | JPY | Capital Spending q/y | |
| JPY | Monetary Base y/y | ||
| Wed Mar 2 | 12:01am | GBP | BRC Shop Price Index y/y |
| 12:30am | AUD | GDP q/q | |
| 7:45am | EUR | French Gov Budget Balance | |
| 8:00am | EUR | Spanish Unemployment Change | |
| 8:55am | EUR | German Unemployment Change | |
| 10:00am | EUR | German Buba President Nagel Speaks | |
| EUR | CPI Flash Estimate y/y | ||
| EUR | Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y | ||
| All Day | All | OPEC-JMMC Meetings | |
| Tentative | EUR | German 10-y Bond Auction | |
| Tentative | GBP | Annual Budget Release | |
| 1:15pm | USD | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | |
| 2:30pm | USD | FOMC Member Bullard Speaks | |
| 3:00pm | CAD | BOC Rate Statement | |
| CAD | Overnight Rate | ||
| USD | Fed Chair Powell Testifies | ||
| 3:30pm | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | |
| 7:00pm | USD | Beige Book | |
| 9:30pm | AUD | AIG Construction Index | |
| Thu Mar 3 | 12:00am | NZD | ANZ Commodity Prices m/m |
| 12:30am | AUD | Building Approvals m/m | |
| AUD | Trade Balance | ||
| 1:45am | CNY | Caixin Services PMI | |
| 3:35am | JPY | 30-y Bond Auction | |
| 5:00am | JPY | Consumer Confidence | |
| 7:30am | CHF | CPI m/m | |
| 8:15am | EUR | Spanish Services PMI | |
| 8:45am | EUR | Italian Services PMI | |
| 8:50am | EUR | French Final Services PMI | |
| 8:55am | EUR | German Final Services PMI | |
| 9:00am | EUR | Final Services PMI | |
| EUR | Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate | ||
| 9:30am | GBP | Final Services PMI | |
| 10:00am | EUR | PPI m/m | |
| EUR | Unemployment Rate | ||
| 12:30pm | EUR | ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts | |
| USD | Challenger Job Cuts y/y | ||
| 1:30pm | USD | Unemployment Claims | |
| USD | Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q | ||
| USD | Revised Unit Labour Costs q/q | ||
| 2:45pm | USD | Final Services PMI | |
| 3:00pm | USD | Fed Chair Powell Testifies | |
| USD | ISM Services PMI | ||
| USD | Factory Orders m/m | ||
| 3:30pm | USD | Natural Gas Storage | |
| 4:30pm | CAD | BOC Gov Macklem Speaks | |
| 6:30pm | GBP | MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks | |
| 8:00pm | GBP | MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks | |
| 11:00pm | USD | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | |
| 11:30pm | JPY | Unemployment Rate | |
| Fri Mar 4 | 12:30am | AUD | Retail Sales m/m |
| 7:00am | EUR | German Trade Balance | |
| 7:45am | EUR | French Industrial Production m/m | |
| 9:30am | GBP | Construction PMI | |
| 10:00am | EUR | Retail Sales m/m | |
| Tentative | EUR | French 10-y Bond Auction | |
| Tentative | GBP | 10-y Bond Auction | |
| 1:30pm | CAD | Building Permits m/m | |
| CAD | Labour Productivity q/q | ||
| USD | Average Hourly Earnings m/m | ||
| USD | Non-Farm Employment Change | ||
| USD | Unemployment Rate | ||
| 3:00pm | CAD | Ivey PMI |
Key earnings data
| 28.02 | 01.03 | 02.03 | 03.03 | 04.03 |
Viatris (VTRS) PMO
Zoom Video Communications (ZM) AMC
|
|
Snowflake (SNOW) AMC
| Broadcom (AVGO) AMC |
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