Week Ahead: Central banks on tap, NFP faces massive Covid hit

The economic calendar is packed full of top-tier releases this week, starting with manufacturing PMIs from China and the US. The RBA, BOC, and ECB all announce their latest policy decisions – and, in the case of the ECB, potentially ruffle a few more feathers in Germany. And, of course, we have the latest US nonfarm payrolls report to round off the week. 

China Caixin Manufacturing PMI – does the headline reflect the story?

China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI slipped back into negative territory in April, missing market expectations of another print just above the 50 mark. A look at the sub-indexes painted a rather more messy picture than the headline number. 

New orders slumped for a third month and export orders dropped the most since December 2008. Order backlogs rose, while supplier delivery times improved and input costs fell on the collapsing oil prices, pushing the headline number higher. 

May’s reading is expected to hold just below 50 – but once again, the vastly different performance of those sub-indexes is likely where the true story will lie. It looks like Chinese industry has a lot further to go yet before growth returns properly. 

US ISM PMIs to stabilise

US manufacturing collapsed last month, with the index diving to 41.5 from 49.1 in March. Despite being the worst drop since April 2009, the reading was still better than market expectations of 36.9, although this was because of a surge in supplier delivery times. While usually a sign of a strong economy, deliveries were held up by supply shortages due to the Covid-19 pandemic. 

Things are expected to have stabilised in May, but getting back into growth territory (a reading above 50) could take a while; Oxford Economics doesn’t expect output losses to be recouped until 2021. 

The decline in non-manufacturing is expected to moderate slightly, with the index forecast to tick higher to 44.2 from 41.8. 

RBA, BOC, ECB interest rate decisions

The Reserve Bank of Australia is the first of three central banks to hold monetary policy meetings this week. Rates are already at a record low 0.25%, which is effectively zero, and the board has no appetite for taking them negative. 

ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures for June show markets are pricing in nearly 50-50 odds of a cut to zero, but many analysts think the RBA has done all it will do, and that rates will remain unchanged for two or three years. 

This week’s Bank of Canada rate announcement coincides with the start of Tiff Macklem’s tenure as governor. Senior deputy governor Carolyn Wilkins said recently that the BOC could look at adjusting its asset purchasing programme with the aim of stimulating the economy, rather than just enhancing the liquidity of financial markets, although policymakers may not be ready for such a move just yet.  

The European Central Bank is expected to leave rates unchanged, although the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) is likely to be extended and expanded. Christine Lagarde will face questions about Germany’s ruling on the ECB’s quantitative easing programme during the post-meeting presser. Read our full preview on the ECB monetary policy meeting here.

Last week Isabel Schnabel, a member of the ECB board who joined in January, shrugged off the ruling, suggesting it was for the Bundesbank and Germany’s government to resolve the issue. 

“I’m sure there is going to be communication between the Bundesbank and the German parliament and the German government, and one will have to find a solution,” Schnabel told the Financial Times last week. “If the ECB can be constructive in supporting that process, we will of course do so.” 

Australia quarterly GDP: the end of three decades of growth

First-quarter economic data is expected to show that the Australian economy contracted -0.8% on the quarter and -1.2% on the year. Australia is expected to fall into recession for the first time in three decades this year, with GDP dropping -10%. 

Last week, Prime Minister Scott Morrison outlined the government’s plans to help revive the economy, but he also warned that any recovery was likely to take between three and five years. 

Eurozone retail sales and Germany factory orders

The collapse in Eurozone retail sales is expected to have worsened at the start of Q2. Analysts are forecasting a month-on-month decline of -18.6% during April, after a -11.2% drop in March. Year-on-year sales are predicted to have cratered -24%. 

Germany’s April factory orders data will likely reveal some similarly painful numbers. Orders fell -15.6% in March and economists are expecting a -21.3% drop when the April data is published on Friday.  

US NFP – jobless rate to hit 20%?

After tanking -20.5 million last month in the worst drop on record, this week’s US nonfarm payrolls report is expected to show another decline in employment of up to -5 million. The jobless rate, which leapt to nearly 15% in April, is likely to print just shy of 20%. Economists expect unemployment will peak around 25%, although Goldman Sachs analysts have suggested it could climb higher. 

Join Markets.com chief market analyst Neil Wilson for live analysis of the market reaction to the US nonfarm payrolls report with our free webinar.

Heads-Up on Earnings 

The following companies are set to publish their quarterly earnings reports this week:

Highlights on XRay this Week 

Read the full schedule of financial market analysis and training.

Key Economic Events

Watch out for the biggest events on the economic calendar this week: