Week ahead: Fed, Bank of England seen on pause; Apple earnings

Here are the week’s key events:

A huge week for earnings with Apple the highlight on Wall Street, whilst the Federal Reserve tops the bill among the central banks in action. The Bank of England and Bank of Japan are also due to announce monetary policy decisions in the coming days, whilst the nonfarm payrolls report ends the week.

Monday

Aussie retail sales data is the first event in the diary as the weeks kicks off. German preliminary CPI numbers emerge from the various regions of the country ahead of the national print around lunch time. The trend so far is encouraging - last time the CPI declined to 4.5% on a yearly basis in September from 6.1% in August. Spanish CPI inflation is another to watch. Pinterest and McDonald’s provide some earnings interest on Wall Street.

Earnings: McDonald’s (MCD), Pinterest (PINS)

Tuesday

Surging global bond yields continue to heap pressure on the Bank of Japan to adjust its ultra-loose monetary policy. The 10yr JGB struck its highest level in a decade last week, forcing the BoJ into more unscheduled bond-buying operations. Whilst it may refrain from making any formal adjustment to its yield curve control policy, it may be minded to signal it’s closer to moving. The BoJ has repeatedly said it will maintain ultra-loose policy until inflation hits 2% on a sustainable basis and its own latest reading – the weighted median y/y reading – rose to 2% in September from 1.8% in August. Governor Ueda has previously signalled the BoJ could end negative rates when the 2% target is in sight. Will this spur the BoJ into action? Maybe not today but if it revises up its inflation forecasts the market may assume YCC changes and an end to negative rates are just around the corner.

Earnings: Amgen (AMGN), Caterpillar (CAT), Pfizer (PFE), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

Wednesday

The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged. Though it left the door open for another hike this year, markets have firmly priced out the chance that this will take place at its Oct 31-Nov 1st meeting. There seems to be a bit of uncertainty around Q4 growth and inflation trends remain encouraging – the Fed has already signalled it’s more about how long it leaves rates this restrictive than worrying too much about another hike. Ahead of the statement press conference with Jay Powell traders will watch the latest ADP nonfarm payrolls report, ISM manufacturing PMI and JOLTS job openings figures.

Earnings: Kraft Heinz Co (KHC), Etsy (ETSY), MicroStrategy (MSTR), PayPal Holdings (PYPL), Qualcomm (QCOM), Airbnb (ABNB)

Thursday

The Bank of England is expected to leave rates on hold at 5.25% and signal it’s done with tightening for now. Although inflation held firm at 6.7% in September, no fireworks are expected from the Monetary Policy Committee at the November meeting. Signs of labour market weakness are softening growth outlook will stay the hand of the MPC. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% between June and August, up from 4% in the March-to-May quarter, whilst signs of a slowdown in the economy seem to be building. As per the Fed, it’s now a case of how long does the BoE keep rates at these levels rather than how high do they go. Apple earnings is the highlight on Wall Street.

Earnings: Apple (AAPL), Eli Lilly (LLY), Moderna (MRNA), Palantir (PLTR), Starbucks (SBUX), Block (SQ), Coinbase (COIN), Shopify (SHOP), Virgin Galactic (SPCE)

Friday

The nonfarm payrolls report is the big-ticket item – remember the duration for rates to stay as restrictive is dependent on the labour market. A month ago, the jobs report came in at +336k vs 170k expected – 33rd month of jobs gains and revisions turned higher after multiple months of downward revisions. Revisions added 119k to July and August. Wage growth was the softest monthly increase since Feb ‘22 and smallest year-over-year gain since June 2021 – good news for the Fed. Since then, few signs of cracks have emerged with weekly unemployment claims hovering at nine-month lows.