Citibank dollar forecast sees 5% jump in USD if Trump wins

Citi sees 5% rise in USD in dollar forecast if Trump wins November election

Analysts at investment bank Citi have forecast a 5% surge in the U.S. dollar and a downturn in bond markets should the Republican Party, led by Donald Trump, secure a comprehensive victory in the U.S. elections this November. This projection is partially based on the dollar's previous 5% increase following Trump's unexpected win in 2016 and a similar decline before the 2020 elections when Trump was defeated by the incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden.

The analysts believe a 5% increase in the dollar is a reasonable expectation should Trump reclaim the presidency and the Republicans take control of both legislative chambers.

Trump is currently seen as the probable Republican candidate for the November 5th election.

They also anticipate a scenario similar to 2020, where the dollar's movements were largely realized by the night of the election, as markets often anticipate election results. The analysts added:

"Therefore, we would expect the high in the dollar - potentially for the year - could very well be seen right around the election”.

At the time of writing on Tuesday, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) — a gauge of the greenback’s strength against six major peers — was 0.22% down at 104.06. The DXY index has gained 2.7% so far this year.

உங்கள் அந்நிய செலாவணி மார்ஜினைக் கணக்கிடுங்கள்

நீங்கள் இப்போது திறந்திருந்தால், அந்நிய செலாவணி நிலைக்காக உங்களுக்கு வழங்கப்படும் கற்பனையான மார்ஜின் தேவையைக் கணக்கிடுங்கள்..

வகை

மேஜர்கள்

மேஜர்கள்

மைனர்கள்

எக்சோடிக்ஸ்

Currencies

நிதிசார் கருவிகள்

ஏலம்

கேற்பது

கணக்கு வகை

சில்லறை வணிகம் நிபுணர்

திசைகள்

விற்பனை வாங்குதல்

அளவு

தொகையானது சமமாக அல்லது அதிகமாக இருக்க வேண்டும்

தொகையானது இதைவிடக் குறைவாக இருக்க வேண்டும்

குறைந்தபட்ச லாட்கள் அதிகரிக்கும் அளவின் அடிப்படையின் மடங்காக தொகை இருக்க வேண்டும்

கணக்கிடுக

USD

USD

EUR

GBP

CAD

AUD

CHF

ZAR

MXN

JPY

லிவரேஜ்

-

தேவைப்படும் மார்ஜின்

$-

தேவையான மார்ஜின் நிதிசார் கருவியான நாணயத்தில் காட்டப்படும்

தேவைப்படும் மார்ஜின்

$-

தேவையான மார்ஜின் தேர்ந்தெடுக்கப்பட்ட கணக்கில் பயன்படுத்தப்படும் நாணயத்தில் காட்டப்படும்

தற்போதைய மாற்று ஃபீஸ்:

-

வர்த்தகத்தைத் தொடங்குங்கள்

கடந்தகால செயல்திறன் எதிர்கால முடிவுகளின் நம்பகமான குறிகாட்டியாக இருப்பதில்லைை.

Potential Republican victory could have biggest effect on bond markets

A comprehensive Republican victory is expected to significantly affect the bond markets, potentially triggering tax reductions, economic stimuli, and new trade tariffs against competitors like China. This could result in higher interest rates, a steeper yield curve, and an increased term premium, likening it to the bond market downturn in October amid concerns about rising U.S. debt levels.

"Long forward vol(alitity) on long-dated forward rates can be a carry friendly hedge for a Republican-sweep scenario, given that the long-dated vol has been trading directionally with the forward rates," the bank's analysts said.

The focus on Wall Street around the election period is expected to center on tax implications.

Citi’s analysts are speculating that Trump would likely focus on extending the current tax policies and possibly introduce additional corporate tax reductions.

However, they note that a "clean extension” of the current tax cuts, which are set to expire soon, could increase the U.S. government's deficit by over $3 trillion over the next decade.

"There is a question as to whether the Republicans will be comfortable adding trillions to the deficit under their control, particularly considering a one-term president," Citi said.

The bank’s analysts added that while Biden might also extend tax cuts, he may also raise some corporate taxes.

When considering indices, bonds, and foreign exchange (forex), and commodities for trading and price predictions, remember that trading CFDs involves a significant degree of risk and could result in capital loss.

Past performance is not indicative of any future results. This information is provided for informative purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice.