US election: What will happen to tesla stock if Trump wins?

Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) is one of the key stocks attracting attention from investors and analysts as the U.S. presidential election approaches. Interest in the electric vehicle (EV) giant is particularly strong due to CEO Elon Musk's close ties with Republican candidate Donald Trump. In light of this, Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives has highlighted the key factors to watch for Tesla in the event that Trump secures a second term in the White House.

Tesla's Outlook Under a Trump Victory

Dan Ives, a bullish analyst on Tesla who believes the company could eventually reach a $1 trillion valuation, indicated that a Trump victory could bring both opportunities and challenges for the electric vehicle (EV) sector. In a post on X (formerly Twitter) on November 4, Ives noted that while Trump’s proposed policies, particularly regarding EV incentives and U.S.-China trade relations, could create a mixed outlook for Tesla, the company’s strong market position might help it navigate these shifts.

Ives pointed out that the EV industry could face headwinds under a Trump administration, especially if tax credits for electric vehicles are rolled back. However, Tesla’s established market presence could still offer an advantage. On the other hand, Ives cautioned that any increase in tariffs on Chinese imports could significantly impact Tesla’s operations in China, one of its key markets.

“Would Trump in the White House be Bullish or Bearish for Tesla? On the margin we would expect EV tax credits to get pulled and negative for EV industry, but a positive for Tesla given scale and scope advantage. Harsher China tariffs on the other hand be a headwind for Tesla in China,” he said.

Impact of Beijing retaliation

Ives also warned that the proposed tariffs could disrupt global supply chains and trigger retaliatory actions from Beijing, potentially affecting American tech giants such as Tesla, Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL). He pointed out that these tariffs could hinder innovation in the rapidly growing artificial intelligence (AI) sector, which is becoming increasingly important to the automotive industry. This insight aligns with Ives’ perspective that Tesla is currently undervalued in the AI space.

A previous report from Finbold explored potential scenarios for Tesla's price target if Trump were to win the presidency. In this context, a Trump victory is seen as a likely catalyst for a rally in Tesla’s stock, given Elon Musk's close relationship with the former president. As a result, the stock is expected to trade between $280 and $300 in the near term.

This optimistic outlook is further bolstered by the possibility of Musk taking a leadership role in the proposed Department of Governmental Efficiency (DOGE) under a Trump administration.

Conversely, a victory for Vice President Kamala Harris could also be favorable for Tesla, as her strong support for clean energy policies could benefit the electric vehicle manufacturer.

What next for Tesla stock price

Tesla investors are hopeful the company will resume its recent momentum after announcing an impressive Q3 earnings report.

The report marked a recovery after the disappointing Robotaxi event, where analysts criticized the lack of a clear roadmap for the company’s full self-driving technology. In this regard, TSLA saw an uptick after Musk claimed that ‘Tesla FSD is now almost entirely AI-driven.’

As of press time, Tesla stock was trading at $245.12, down 1.57% since the last market close. The losses are part of broader volatility witnessed in the near term, where the stock has dropped by over 8% on the weekly chart.

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Past performance is not indicative of any future results. This information is provided for informative purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice.