星期二 Nov 14 2023 08:37
5 最小
1. Dollar hits one-year high against yen, drops on options trading
2. Federal Reserve cues: DXY index steady as markets await inflation figures
3. Japan inflation: New data shows lower cost pressures, providing little support for JPY
4. Yen forecast: Societe Generale says USD/JPY uptrend likely to extend on a break above 152
On Monday, the dollar surged to its highest level against the Japanese yen in over a year, benefiting from reduced expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts in 2024, before falling sharply following high volumes of options trades.
At the beginning of the session, the dollar rallied to 151.92 yen, reaching its highest point since October 2022, approximately 20 minutes before the expiry of some $1.25 billion in options contracts with a 152 strike price, as per analysts' observations.
The dollar saw a drop to 151.20 just minutes after the 10 a.m. ET (1500 GMT) strike price deadline. Analysts surveyed by Reuters noted that an additional $2.2 billion in options contracts is scheduled to expire on Wednesday. The price drop was not the result of Bank of Japan intervention, the analysts said.
Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki recently said that the government would closely monitor the currency market and respond appropriately. Despite these comments, the Japanese yen, which has depreciated nearly 14% against the dollar this year, showed little immediate reaction.
The overall sentiment in global currency markets was subdued, with traders awaiting the latest U.S. inflation figures on Tuesday to gauge the likelihood of interest rate cuts next year.
In a comment to the Reuters news agency, Societe Generale analyst Kit Juckes said:
"We're in this pause where the dollar has peaked and the U.S. economy is slowing but people are going to wait for confirmation. Given the move in U.S. Treasuries of course the yen is not rallying yet.
The USD to JPY exchange rate hit 151.88 yen on Monday, marking the pair’s highest level since October 2022. The dollar to yen rate saw a 0.15% increase on the day, building on last week's rally of around 1.4% — the largest weekly gain against the Japanese yen in three months.
如果您今天進行了交易，請計算您的假設損益（總成本和費用）.
市場
金融工具
帳戶類型
方向
數量
金額必須等於或高於
金額必須小於
金額應為最小手數增量的倍數
USD
EUR
GBP
CAD
AUD
CHF
ZAR
MXN
JPY
值
佣金
點差
槓桿
手續費
所需保證金
隔夜利息
過去的表現並不是未來結果的可靠指標。
所有與你帳戶貨幣不相同貨幣計價的金融商品的倉位，在平倉時將被收取轉換費用。
Last week, Federal Reserve policymakers, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, indicated that the fight against inflation might not be over, leading to a reduction in market expectations for rate cuts. This, in turn, elevated short-dated Treasury yields and bolstered the greenback.
The DXY dollar index, which measures USD strength against several major currencies, held steady at around 150.80, retaining most of last week's gains.
Late on Friday, the market showed little response to rating agency Moody's downgrading the outlook for U.S. credit from stable to negative.
Data released from Japan on Monday revealed that wholesale inflation had slowed to below 1% for the first time in over 2.5 years, suggesting diminishing cost pressures that had been driving up prices and giving minimal support to the yen.
Despite the news, market participants remained vigilant for potential intervention from Tokyo to strengthen the struggling yen.
Talking about Japanese currency intervention risks, BNY Mellon senior macro strategist Geoff Yu told Reuters:
"At this point it's still about the pace of moves so if we move at the current pace it is manageable for Japan. Overall, the dollar environment is driving things.”
In a note on Monday, economists at Societe Generale issued a bearish yen forecast, saying the USD to JPY pair could trade towards 152.80 and 153.60 in the coming days:
“USD/JPY successfully defended the support of 148.80 representing late October low in recent pullback. This test has resulted in a bounce. The pair is now challenging the peak of 2022 near 152. If this hurdle is overcome, the phase of uptrend is likely to extend towards next projections at 152.80 and 153.60.
Only if the pair breaks recent pivot low near 148.80 would there be risk of a larger down move.”
At the time of writing on Monday, the USD to JPY exchange rate traded at 151.68, with the greenback having risen by close to 0.15% against the Japanese yen on the day, as per MarketWatch data.
The DXY dollar index was largely stable around the 105.90 area.
When considering foreign currency (forex) for trading and price predictions, remember that trading CFDs involves a significant degree of risk and could result in capital loss.
Past performance is not indicative of any future results. This information is provided for informative purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice
標籤
查看全部最新
查看全部
星期五, 27 九月 2024
2 最小
星期三, 25 九月 2024
2 最小
星期三, 25 九月 2024
2 最小
ZH
